My dogs' evolutionary history. Part 1: Predictions

[Click here to skip to Part 2 and Part 3]

You might remember Murphy and Elroy from the time we used science to solve the book-eating mystery. Or the time they figured out evolution. (Still looking for puplisher! [sick]) Or maybe you already know Elroy because you follow him (@ElroyBeefstu) on Twitter.

Elroy (I fit in your phone!)

Murphy (awww)

These are the mutts that inhabit our lives, and we theirs.

It's because of our tremendous love for these dogs but mostly because of our tremendous fascination with evolution that we ordered Wisdom Panel kits for each, for my birthday.

What we do

With Wisdom Panel, the process on the consumer end isn't a whole lot different from 23andMe. You purchase the kits online, they arrive at your house, you activate the kits online, you swab your dogs' mouths, pop the kits back in the mail with the postage-prepaid packaging, and wait for an email with the results.

Wisdom panel needs far less of the contents of a dog's mouth than 23andMe requires. And that's not only because the analysis will be far less extensive, but because dogs' lips and face muscles aren't hooked up for spitting into a test tube.

The turnaround was speedy. We sent in the samples on May 28 and got the results June 6.

At this stage in the process, the only red flag is that they require you to submit your dog's weight during online registration. For the love of science, there should be no phenotypic hints required. I hope they don't use weight to discard or confirm dog breeds for their results report.

What they do
Here's what the FAQ says:

Testing your dog with Wisdom Panel® 2.0 begins when you use the cheek swabs to simply collect a small DNA sample from inside your dog’s cheek and send the swabs into the laboratory. Once your sample is received at our lab it is scanned into our database and assigned to a batch for testing. It then undergoes processing to extract the DNA from your dog’s cells which is examined for the 321 markers that are used in the test. The results for these markers are sent to a computer that evaluated them using a program designed to consider all of the pedigree trees that are possible in the last three generations. The trees considered include a simple pedigree with a single breed (a likely pure-bred dog), two different breeds at the parental level (a first-generation cross), all the way up to a complex tree with eight different great-grandparent breeds allowed. Our computer used information from our extensive breed database to fill these potential pedigrees. For each of the millions of combinations of ancestry trees built and considered, the computer gave each a score representing how well that selected combination of breeds matched to your dog’s data. The pedigree with the overall best score is the one which is selected and provided to you in your dog’s individualized report.

This doesn't really cut it for me. I want to know what the methods are and this is all they provide in answers to "Science Based Questions!" This isn't helping much:

Not only does the computer analyze a dog’s DNA for the breeds and their likely proportions in the dog’s ancestry, but it also models which side of a dog’s ancestry each breed is likely coming from.

I'll just have to assume for now that they use something like a chip (because sequencing is still not thrifty) to identify markers that they've already linked to breeds and then they're applying their probability-based analyses to those markers in our dogs in order to provide an estimate of our dogs' ancestry. And what are those markers?

Wisdom Panel only uses what are called autosomal DNA markers, chromosomes that contain most of the genetic instructions for every canine’s body make up (height, weight, size etc.). There are no markers from either the so-called sex chromosomes (the canine X or Y chromosomes). Mitochondrial DNA, or Y-chromosome DNA testing, is rather different as these parts of the genome are passed on intact from mother to child and father to son respectively, but are therefore only representative of either the female or the male lineage. Autosomal DNA is inherited both from the maternal and paternal lineages equally and constantly shuffled by a process called recombination at each successive generation, and therefore is able to give useful information on the breeds found on both sides of a dog’s lineage.
To find the genetic markers that performed best at distinguishing between breeds, Mars Veterinary™ tested over 4,600 SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms or genetic markers, where genetic variation has been found between different dogs), from positions across the whole canine autosomal genome from over 3,200 dogs. To further refine the search, Mars Veterinary determined the best 1,536 genetic variations and ran them against an additional 4,400 dogs from a wide range of breeds. This stage of testing resulted in the selection of the final panel of DNA markers that performed best at distinguishing between breeds, ultimately creating the Wisdom Panel genetic database which presently covers over 200 different breeds.

Predicting our results
Both Elroy and Murphy are mixed breed dogs. Here's the list of breeds they say they can detect.  And here's more from the website:

Wisdom Panel® 2.0 breaks down a dog’s lineage in the form of an ancestry tree.  This allows you to see which breeds are present at a parent, grandparent, or great-grandparent level.  Keep in mind that a parent contributes 50% of their DNA to the puppy while a grandparent contributes about 25% of their DNA on average to the puppy.  It follows that a great-grandparent would contribute approximately 12.5% of their DNA to the puppy on average.
Since each of these different levels can contribute different amount of DNA to the puppy, you can see a variety of influence in the puppy’s physical and behavioral traits.  With a parental breed, you are likely to see some physical and behavioral traits from this breed represented unless some of the genes are recessive (requires two copies of the gene variant to show it).  Examples of recessive traits include longhair in most breeds, a clear yellow or red hair coat, a brown or chocolate hair coat, and prick or upright ear set (e.g. like a German Shepherd Dog).  You may see traits from breeds at the grandparent level and it becomes less likely to see physical and behavioral traits from breeds at the great-grandparent level unless those traits are dominant (requires only one copy of the gene variant to show it).  Examples of dominant traits include shorthair in most breeds, black hair coat, black nose, a drop or down ear set (e.g. like a Beagle), and merle/dapple (e.g. like a Australian Shepherd or Great Dane).

For Elroy (85 lbs)
Our guesses = 50% sharpei or chow chow; 50% rottweiler

Kevin was told he was half sharpei and half rottweiler when he adopted him and all his litter mates were black and looked like rotts. He's got tiny ears and a huge square head and heavy neck relative to his body.

We started to wonder whether he was chow chow instead of sharpei when I checked my best dog reference for another breed with a black tongue.

If he's part chow chow then my envy of his fur is no longer so crazy, since the breed was long made for that... and for dinner too. It makes me chuckle every time I call Elroy's dinnertime, "chow time."

For Murphy (40 lbs)
My guess = 25 % German shepherd; 25 % Border collie; 25 % Hound of some kind; 25% unknown village dog. Kevin's guess = 25% German shepherd; 75% Border Collie

Before her greybeard took over.

Unlike for Elroy, Murphy's behavior came into play for these predictions. Her main occupation is to herd each car that comes down the lane along the edge of our lot. She also stalks squirrels and chases shorebirds. And compared to Elroy, she doesn't have as many breed-specific morphological traits.

Who knows? We could be way off. After all, I just took this Dog Bark Interactive Quiz and failed miserably despite knowing exactly what Elroy and Murphy's vocalizations mean.

Results and analysis, right here, tomorrow...