tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post6977858345488161309..comments2024-02-29T03:57:00.088-05:00Comments on The Mermaid's Tale: The chaff for the grain: the effects of alcohol during pregnancyAnne Buchananhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-20263724879769777302010-10-07T15:01:46.879-04:002010-10-07T15:01:46.879-04:00The cynical side of this is the way investigators ...The cynical side of this is the way investigators use endless studies to keep the funds flowing, releasing 'update' reports periodically. I know of no study of this type that has voluntarily said it's time to close shop, nor none of any size that the funders had the guts to terminate because it had done its job.<br /><br />In t his case, there is the Heisenberg factor that means that even if later-childhood effects do arise, the number and nature of causal factors will increase also (say, trauma in school at age 6 affecting behavior at age 8), so the same size study will be decreasingly powerful relative to the number of variables it should take into account.<br /><br />Further, as risk factor exposures change, since all these things are contingent and interactive, the risk estimates for this cohort, related to the past 20 years of history, won't apply to the future with knowable precision.<br /><br />Meanwhile, what else could the funds be used for, that would have more important benefit?Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-25782499771075759922010-10-07T14:43:12.031-04:002010-10-07T14:43:12.031-04:00Sarah & I were talking about this study the ot...Sarah & I were talking about this study the other day, and she absolutely went livid when we got to the segment about this being "definitive" proof that low alcohol consumption during pregnancy is not detrimental to cognitive ability.<br /><br />Sarah a school psychologist, so this issue is particularly important for her. Her point was that cognitive difficulties and intellectual deficits caused by fetal alcohol syndrome or from fetal alcohol effects won't necessarily manifest or solidify by age 5. So it is meaningless in many ways to say that by age 5, these children show no negative impacts from their mothers' alcohol consumption during pregnancy. You simply can't measure any effects yet.<br /><br />I hope that I haven't totally mis-characterized her arguments, but she's got a point. Reporting these results now makes sense for getting further grants, but it is not at all clear that these children won't show signs once the IQ measures typically used for small children stabilize - typically after age 7. <br /><br />And then there is the question of what IQ actually measures...Sarick Rochettehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06953338570630440833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-86541536216791612122010-10-07T12:05:50.893-04:002010-10-07T12:05:50.893-04:00Woo-hoo! They can now have 1-2 tiny glasses of win...Woo-hoo! They can now have 1-2 tiny glasses of wine per week? Par-teee!Texbrithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07375489043245888060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-66665894120374617492010-10-07T10:37:59.566-04:002010-10-07T10:37:59.566-04:00The BBC story is dangerous. They clearly don't...The BBC story is dangerous. They clearly don't know what they are talking about. <br /><br />One of the most pitiful results of alcohol is the Fetal Alcohol Syndrome. Alcohol can reach the fetus and abstain it from sufficient oxygen and nutrients. This can happen due to regular drinking or after a one time excess during pregnancy. Children with the syndrome often have malformations in the face are educationally subnormal or suffer from Attention Deficit Disorder (ADD).<br /><br />Let them read my post called "Alcoholic beverages, maybe not a good idea" http://bit.ly/bkqJohAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-35704156150089110652010-10-07T09:35:15.461-04:002010-10-07T09:35:15.461-04:00The problem is complex causation in complex societ...The problem is complex causation in complex societies. An industry, like epidemiology or genetics, has to keep the factory running so we get a continual flow of superficial studies.<br /><br />At the same time, if we identify real problems, as opposed to largely invented ones (as in this case, perhaps, because so many other things than a drop of the nectar cause childhood problems), then it is not clear what other approaches than total Big Brother monitoring everything everybody does, can get convincing answers.<br /><br />And it's worse, much worse than that. First, because these middle-class overkill studies deal with trivial problems like this one, rather than the more expensive, serious problems of SES-based disease and quality of life risks.<br /><br />And second, there is the Heisenberg uncertainty effect, that measuring something changes it so it can't be fully understood: As soon as such a study is reported, lots of people change their behavior. In the past, women went on the wagon if they even _might_ get pregnant--probably over-worrying and turning into bores for their spouses. And now the light tipplers will grab their spouses and hustle them into the bedroom for a tumble.<br /><br />And remembering these changes years later, which are ephemeral because they'll change again with the next science news report, means that the causal landscape is affected by the studies themselves.<br /><br />A difficult tangle for a serious-minded epidemiologist to deal with.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-34457014076601996222010-10-07T09:19:44.688-04:002010-10-07T09:19:44.688-04:00Science reporting is AWESOME for those who have jo...Science reporting is AWESOME for those who have journal access - It alerts them to the new study and is often entertaining and thought-provoking but all that comes with knowing that the news report won't be the end-all be-all. If you have access you can just read the original article to follow-up. <br /><br />But for the majority of people without journal access, science reporting can read like movie reviews for movies that only the critics and the people in the movie biz get to watch.Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-51222339810241127642010-10-07T09:06:16.008-04:002010-10-07T09:06:16.008-04:00Yes, and self-reporting is only one of the problem...Yes, and self-reporting is only one of the problems with this study. Alas. <br /><br />If nonhuman animals talked to us, we'd just have to wonder what they really meant....Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-75633503839274662142010-10-07T09:03:16.252-04:002010-10-07T09:03:16.252-04:00Thanks Anne.
Wishing so many studies on human heal...Thanks Anne.<br />Wishing so many studies on human health and behavior weren't based on self-reporting. Then again, we often wish nonhuman animals could talk to us so we could study them better.Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.com