tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post5533163279289626237..comments2024-02-29T03:57:00.088-05:00Comments on The Mermaid's Tale: Republican presidents are bad for our health?Anne Buchananhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-39596266837199846972014-08-08T12:23:31.764-04:002014-08-08T12:23:31.764-04:00Anonymous, I'm not sure what you mean by 3% be...Anonymous, I'm not sure what you mean by 3% being "among the biggest effects out there." My point was just that because infant mortality rates in the US are already low, even if not the lowest in the world, 3% of that is pretty small. Not nothing, and if it's your infant, it doesn't matter how insignificant the statistics look. <br /><br />The effects of no prenatal care, or of poverty, or of no or poor post-natal care can be much larger than a 3% rise. IMRs in populations without such care are higher by orders of magnitude. See <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate" rel="nofollow">this </a>table, e.g.<br /><br />And yes, I think neonatal mortality should basically not reflect an effect at all. It should be seen in post neonatal deaths. I don't see the large differences you're seeing. But perhaps we're talking past each other here.Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-64777662975592836372014-08-08T10:52:53.178-04:002014-08-08T10:52:53.178-04:00I don't understand why people here are saying ...I don't understand why people here are saying 3% is a small effect? Have you read the literature in infant mortality? 3% is perhaps amongst the biggest effects out there, if not the biggest reported!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-39865639043458474352014-08-08T10:47:37.607-04:002014-08-08T10:47:37.607-04:00The author of this commentary on the published pap...The author of this commentary on the published paper states that Rodriguez et al did not find differences between neonatal and postneonatal, and between blacks and whites. Well, reading the paper (and just looking at the patterns in the graph) there ARE differences: Effects for postneonatal are much bigger than for neonatal, and the authors say that even though proportional effects for blacks and whites are similar, there are huge differences between absolute effects for blacks and whites.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-60707682615917072622014-06-18T20:28:53.942-04:002014-06-18T20:28:53.942-04:00The problem is that all data need some 'massag...The problem is that all data need some 'massaging', and it's a judgment call. But I agree that the pattern seems far too regular not to raise questions about the data, or about something else. However, the usual kinds of massaging (if done right) doesn't induce that sort of pattern.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-73005277210070514642014-06-18T20:25:40.285-04:002014-06-18T20:25:40.285-04:00No, massaged. They corrected for the steep 50 year...No, massaged. They corrected for the steep 50 year declining trend. Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-49904694143232030092014-06-18T20:24:06.803-04:002014-06-18T20:24:06.803-04:00Are they raw data or based on rounds of massaging?...Are they raw data or based on rounds of massaging? The sine-wave looks too strange to be real data.Manoj Samantahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04264467983614167240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-52878300275515063522014-06-18T17:57:56.126-04:002014-06-18T17:57:56.126-04:00Thanks. It looks like no one knows what to make o...Thanks. It looks like no one knows what to make of this.Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-25713210323175505342014-06-18T17:18:03.235-04:002014-06-18T17:18:03.235-04:00An interesting discussion here. http://economistsv...An interesting discussion here. http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/11/infant-mortality-and-the-presidents-party.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-32185803733408117782014-06-18T15:35:19.721-04:002014-06-18T15:35:19.721-04:00That's plausible but very generic. Again I a...That's plausible but very generic. Again I am not persuaded because of the lag-time issues, the sinusoidal regularity....and the fact that the pattern seems to decline as an administration goes on, reaching a low point before the next admin takes over.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-19912693403504969842014-06-18T15:32:40.099-04:002014-06-18T15:32:40.099-04:00The political statement would be simple, and go so...The political statement would be simple, and go something like this, I think: political epidemiology often looks at the effects of economic inequality as the cause of ill health. Inequality is higher in Republican administrations, thus Republican presidents are bad for public health, of which infant mortality is an indicator. Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-26404505256674634672014-06-18T15:24:04.506-04:002014-06-18T15:24:04.506-04:00Yes, I think I understood. What I was saying was ...Yes, I think I understood. What I was saying was that I didn't see how the higher-level gestalt factor would have such small but replicable effects, even as a proxy. I guess I'm mixed as to whether this paper is to be taken seriously or not, and if so, then how could one ever even pose a clear analysis to identify the factor.<br /><br />For one thing, the patter isn't just high vs low rates, but a sine-wave like pattern of increase and decline. Maybe some such thing affects elections, but maybe there is some other kind of explanation. For example--just to illustrate--what if there were relevant generational factors in some behavioral trait such that kids want to be different from their parents. It just appears too regular to me. But of course I'm worse than just guessing, with absolutely no extra knowledge from what's in the paper.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-58313476056197409982014-06-18T15:23:26.177-04:002014-06-18T15:23:26.177-04:00Or maybe it is, what do I know about cause!?! :)Or maybe it is, what do I know about cause!?! :)Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-34329164666457873082014-06-18T15:23:01.427-04:002014-06-18T15:23:01.427-04:00If it was a political statement in disguise, it...If it was a political statement in disguise, it's not very strong given how a president's party isn't the main determinant of what happens to the USA while he's in office. Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-40165078837863229342014-06-18T15:20:28.287-04:002014-06-18T15:20:28.287-04:00Holly, I didn't think of it the other way arou...Holly, I didn't think of it the other way around -- conditions that affect infant mortality rates affecting presidential elections. I like that hypothesis. <br /><br />I actually think the results are a statistical artifact of some sort, though other than reporting differences, I don't know what that would be. As I noted in the post, to me it's odd that neo and post neonatal mortality show the same pattern. <br /><br />But this all illustrates the problem with this kind of study -- you've got a correlation, and not only is it hard to pick apart what or whether it tells you about causation, it's impossible to even know the direction of causation. Is this study anything more than a political statement in disguise? I really don't know, but that's because it's impossible to know.Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-9980756839492966552014-06-18T15:18:03.643-04:002014-06-18T15:18:03.643-04:00Also, I could be wrong, but abortions can go into ...Also, I could be wrong, but abortions can go into neonatal death stats, depending. Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-2325629882684469542014-06-18T15:17:02.204-04:002014-06-18T15:17:02.204-04:00That's not what I meant. Conditions as measure...That's not what I meant. Conditions as measured by a 3% difference in infant mortality, here, like as a proxy measure for some larger gestalt, are the gestalt conditions that influence voting, not infant mortality itself. Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-27196611793669245642014-06-18T15:12:47.426-04:002014-06-18T15:12:47.426-04:00You can argue it in almost any way, I think. The ...You can argue it in almost any way, I think. The lag time issue is to me the most problematic one. The effect of 3% change is too small I'd say to affect an election result, since most states vote is far more than 3% edge, I think. Attitudes about reporting might be more likely for something less clear-cut than a death, unless prenatals were not considered.<br /><br />But now I can't tell if anything serious can be said about this, or even whether any explanation is less likely than some artifact in the data.<br /><br />In tomorrow's post we deal with correlations and how to interpret them (or not)....Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-311559177425920352014-06-18T15:08:40.113-04:002014-06-18T15:08:40.113-04:00If I were asked to provide hypotheses for these da...If I were asked to provide hypotheses for these data, they'd be quite different from what Anne reported. I'd say (1) that conditions reflected by infant mortality play a role in how presidential elections go, or (2) infant mortality reporting (by mothers) and data collection and reporting are both slightly different during different administrations. Both of these make slightly more sense than a current president's political party having any effect on the infant mortality during his administration. Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-18650441118765354282014-06-18T15:00:28.548-04:002014-06-18T15:00:28.548-04:00It's all jumbled up as to whether the incumben...It's all jumbled up as to whether the incumbent's party is responsible, or his predecessor's. So the upshot is, if you want to have a healthy baby, either vote Democrat, or wait to see if Hillary runs and wins. Tell your man to go have a beer and watch some sports or something.....for the next couple of years!Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-53358787953843497402014-06-18T14:55:56.124-04:002014-06-18T14:55:56.124-04:00I was just collecting quotes for a slide: "Po...I was just collecting quotes for a slide: "Poverty causes HIV/AIDS," "AIDS causes poverty," "poverty causes malaria," "poverty 'ages' genes of young children".... There's the issue of avoiding assuming causation from correlation, but there's perhaps the deeper issue of what we even mean by 'cause'. Anne Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-30915270196650697072014-06-18T14:55:50.655-04:002014-06-18T14:55:50.655-04:00I get that we're not making serious claims her...I get that we're not making serious claims here, but that is what I tried to write: The condition, described here by infant mortality, is also the condition voters are living in when they pick the next president.Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-68445934694178993482014-06-18T14:50:14.287-04:002014-06-18T14:50:14.287-04:00Nice try, but if that were the case, then wouldn&#...Nice try, but if that were the case, then wouldn't the _next_ president's party reflect that? Saddened parents would vote differently the next election, or something. Or maybe if your baby dies, then if you're a Dem you react one way and if you're an elephant the other? This gets all tangled up! It's easier just to blame the Republicans if you are not worried about overpopulation, and the Dems if you think the earth is too crowded already.<br />Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-59660078211490898982014-06-18T14:47:53.550-04:002014-06-18T14:47:53.550-04:00Which is complicated by the fact that it's not...Which is complicated by the fact that it's not always a landslide and we have the electoral college. Phleh.Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-56041918601793957072014-06-18T14:44:44.736-04:002014-06-18T14:44:44.736-04:00What if whatever infant mortality reflects is also...What if whatever infant mortality reflects is also what causes us to choose a president? Holly Dunsworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05260104967932801186noreply@blogger.com