tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post4650673180702982130..comments2024-02-29T03:57:00.088-05:00Comments on The Mermaid's Tale: "The Blizzard of 2016" and predictability: Part I--the value of predictionAnne Buchananhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-5074631187269058302016-01-25T13:53:21.586-05:002016-01-25T13:53:21.586-05:00No, I don't know him. I'll see what I can...No, I don't know him. I'll see what I can find that he's written.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-18055103639719588192016-01-25T13:39:14.339-05:002016-01-25T13:39:14.339-05:00Looking forward to your posts. Are you familiar wi...Looking forward to your posts. Are you familiar with the biostatisticians Stephen Senn? He's also been critiquing precision medicine lately. He's familiar with drug development.Bill Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16756950826166022532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-60030559459830875852016-01-25T12:12:34.174-05:002016-01-25T12:12:34.174-05:00It's a key point about uncertainties and how w...It's a key point about uncertainties and how we react to them. And, perhaps, to the false alarms so often seen in the daily media, which they do for their own purposes.<br /><br />In the next two posts in this series, we hope to address these issues, and (naturally) to relate them to the widespread promises of 'precision' medicine. I hope, at least, not to have got the meteorology screwed up in my comments!Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-21287130184689343162016-01-25T12:04:43.232-05:002016-01-25T12:04:43.232-05:00Don't forget the stranded ones prior experienc...Don't forget the stranded ones prior experience. How many of the stranded have seen similar forecasts fail and thought they were playing the odds? I've certainly had the experience of seeing a huge storm forecast and then getting a light dusting (e.g. 1"-2") inches, as well as the opposite (24" - 36" in a day). Having lost a car in a poorly forecast ice storm, I also carry blankets, flares and jumper cables in the back of my 4-wheel drive vehicle.Bill Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16756950826166022532noreply@blogger.com