tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post3052912849089071647..comments2024-02-29T03:57:00.088-05:00Comments on The Mermaid's Tale: Simulating complexity and predicting the futureAnne Buchananhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09212151396672651221noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-60507143220633516572015-03-23T12:16:25.036-04:002015-03-23T12:16:25.036-04:00Hi Jeff Walker, Sorry for the delay in my reply. I...Hi Jeff Walker, Sorry for the delay in my reply. I'm currently working on some philosophic research about future contingents and counterfactuals other than evolutionary development. I probably will at some point do more analysis of evolution, but I doubt that computer simulations could handle the theories that I am developing. But nonetheless Ken's and Anne's work on simulations does tie into the philosophy or future contingents. Peace, JimJames Goetzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02412501436355228925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-14565061236077683882015-03-21T10:18:24.156-04:002015-03-21T10:18:24.156-04:00Students use their word knowledge to predict how u...Students use their word knowledge to predict how unfamiliar words might contribute to different story elements.<br />Maricardahttp://maricarda.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-88100276128463122652015-03-18T07:17:09.264-04:002015-03-18T07:17:09.264-04:00Great post! We need more of these kind of studies....Great post! We need more of these kind of studies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-7105422510178796002015-03-17T17:53:28.983-04:002015-03-17T17:53:28.983-04:00Yes! Simulations are excellent tools to discover b...Yes! Simulations are excellent tools to discover bugs in one's thinking! I have started to teach simple simulation strategies to students in biology to test their understanding of simple statistical (correlations, causal effects, etc.), evolutionary (random drift, selection, etc.), and physiological (diffusion) concepts.<br /><br />As for James: I would also suggest reading Erik Kandel's memoir. It has nothing to do with computer simulations but his entire (Nobel prize winning) research program started when he approached a mentor early on and wanted to design experiments to study the neurophysiology of psychotherapy! His mentor replied with something like "huh, I think you need to start with something much much simpler". And Kandel did - starting out with the very simplest experiments of the neurophysiology of conditioning in the response to a startle stimulus in Aplysia. This was an exceptionally simple experimental model of memory!Jeff Walkernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-81986535620167983962015-03-17T16:29:20.956-04:002015-03-17T16:29:20.956-04:00My own experience is that I have tried to simulate...My own experience is that I have tried to simulate things from the most generic point of view that seemed practicable, being as little prescriptive as I could, making assumptions as generic as seemed feasible.<br /><br />I have typically learned the most when things did not look as I expected. On a few occasions this reflected a bug in the program,but most of the time it was a 'bug' in my thinking.<br /><br />Simulation that raises surprises may be the most informative of all. If it just shows what you expected, in some ways it means you have built it in to the approach.<br /><br />Secondly, simulation should suggest what to look at empirically or how to look in ways not typically already done.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-39814270148131144772015-03-17T16:11:28.373-04:002015-03-17T16:11:28.373-04:00James: The simulation discussed in this post reall...James: The simulation discussed in this post really has nothing to do with the kinds of simulation that you seem to be interested in. I would suggest that if you are truly interested in simulation models applied to different aspects of evolutionary biology, you start with a *big* cup of coffee and settle in with google scholar. You will have many years of reading ahead of you. But it is really hard to understand these simulations without getting your hands dirty so I would suggest that you also become intimately familiar with programming and try creating simulations your self. Python is free and there is lots of online help.Jeff Walkernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-32858598924501103802015-03-13T19:13:01.959-04:002015-03-13T19:13:01.959-04:00I find this fascinating, but how could one predict...I find this fascinating, but how could one predict the evolution of a predator and prey?<br /><br />I feel stumped at what I suppose is the first step. I think that the first step is predicting possible new phenotypes from possible outcomes of independent assortment and mutations (point substitutions, indels, chromosome aberrations). I find this mind boggling to consider for one or two sexually reproductive species. (Of course, I do not know nearly as much about this as you two.)<br /><br />I suppose that the next step is simulating the eventual fixation or extinction of these phenotypes while considering the factors that are mainly the environment and the frequency of repetition if any for the respective mutations.<br /><br />Moreover, these two steps are just one degree of adaptation in evolutionary development that might eventually result in complexity.James Goetzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02412501436355228925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-82449388395216452252015-03-12T14:30:53.049-04:002015-03-12T14:30:53.049-04:00One can't simulate this because one would need...One can't simulate this because one would need to know the environments and the 'traits' caused by the simulated genes in relation to the environments, and also the competitors (individuals and species). One could predict the evolution of ecosystems, maybe of predators and prey, of adaptation to available resources and so on. But simulating the specifics might require building in what we already know happened.Ken Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02049713123559138421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1812431336777691886.post-20651622621929489872015-03-12T14:11:26.122-04:002015-03-12T14:11:26.122-04:00Hi, This computer simulation project sounds intere...Hi, This computer simulation project sounds interesting to me. My interest is mostly long-term evolution. For example, assuming the origin of a prokaryotic cell, on average, what could we expect to develop within 4 billion years, 5 billion years, 6 billion years...? I suppose no current computer system could work on that, but perhaps this could shed some light on the past debates of the late Stephen Jay Gould and Simon Conway Morris on the likeliness for the evolutionary emergence of intelligent life on any given planet that forms a prokaryotic cell. I tend to side with Gould while I know of no way to calculate or simulate this.James Goetzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02412501436355228925noreply@blogger.com